Lucky London . . . but for how long? PART FIVE: CAPITAL FEARS

HOW long can London stay lucky?

Only a remarkable series of events, a kind of life-savingaccumulator bet, spared the city from death and destruction early onFriday.

Security chiefs and senior politicians can barely believe such anattack has been thwarted, not by intelligence or surveillance but bya sequence of lucky breaks starting with a pavement drunk.

The bombs might have been timed to coincide with the GordonBrown's arrival as prime minister. They may have been an appallingmemorial to the July 7, 2005, bombings or a reaction to theannouncement of Salman Rushdie's knighthood. Another possiblemotivation is the death of more than 50 Afghan civilians in an airbombardment by American troops in the last week. The reason couldhave been the attackers' hatred of women. The failed bombers couldwell the same hollow fundamentalism of the September 11 suicideattackers, a perverted view of Islam that justifies porn, womanisingand drinking while trumpeting misogyny.

They will almost certainly have echoed the sentiments of DhirenBarot, the jailed would-be jihadist whose template for packinglimousines with gas cylinders, explosives and shrapnel to create afleet of car bombs was uncovered in Pakistan and led to hisconviction in Britain. One of his coconspirators, jailed last month,was heard to say that blowing up women at the Ministry of Soundnightclub in London would be fair game because no-one could be blamedfor killing "those slags dancing around".

These British-born jihadists and there are many more of them aresad and dangerous individuals. But this week it was their turn to beunlucky and hundreds of innocent lives were spared.

The clubs and bars around Piccadilly and Haymarket were alive withyoung people out enjoying themselves early on Friday morning. Therewere several hundred people inside Tiger Tiger, the nightclub where aMercedes car drew to a halt and the driver made a hasty escape.Thursday night at Tiger Tiger is "ladies' night", one of the club'smost popular events of the week.

Fortunately, someone fell and hit their head, as often happensafter several drinks have been had. The injury was minor, but anambulance was called to attend the club on Haymarket, just around thecorner from Piccadilly Circus, shortly after 1.25am.

As they tended to their patient, the paramedics saw petrol vapourrising from the footwell of the metallic green Mercedes that seemedto have been abandoned in the street. The ambulance crew alertedtheir control officers, and police were on the scene in large numberswithin minutes.

THE security services had no prior information of a specific bombthreat but the capital is on almost permanent high alert and theauthorities have well-rehearsed operational plans for such scenarios.

Last month, police began spotchecking petrol tankers coming intothe capital in the expectation that a tactic used in Iraq known asvehicle-borne improvised explosive devices might soon be surface inLondon. The incident also appears to have been foreshadowed by aposting on internet chat room stating: "Today I say: Rejoice, byAllah, London will be bombed." So, prepared for the worst, the policearrived with bomb disposal officers. The trail of smoke emerging fromthe Mercedes was caused by a lethal combination of fumes leaking fromopened patio gas cylinders on the back seat and vapour from petrolcans packed with fuel and six-inch nails.

One of the officers spotted the trigger a mobile phone wired to alightbulb and recognised the device as one commonly used in Baghdad.A call to the phone would have completed an electrical circuit,causing the bulb wire to heat up and ignite the fuel mixture in thecar. The Madrid train bombers also used such remote phone detonators.

The officer opened the car door, climbed over the gas cylinders,got out his pliers, cut the wire connecting the mobile to bulb andprevented a massive fireball exploding in the London street.

But the drama wasn't over yet. Not long after the police startedarriving in Haymarket, a Westminster parking attendant ticketed ablue Mercedes 280E which was parked illegally on Cockspur Street,just a few hundred metres down the road.

At 2.30am, after hundreds of clubbers had been swiftly evacuatedfrom Tiger Tiger, the blue Mercedes was towed away, to an undergroundgarage on Park Lane. Because it smelt strange, the car its deadlycargo, similar to that in the first vehicle, going unnoticed wasleft outside, next to the enforcement company's office.

It was only later, as news of the first incident emerged, thatparking attendants at Park Lane made the connection and called thepolice, who defused the bomb. The device could have been timed to gooff as panicked survivors of the first attack made their way towardsthe open space of Trafalgar Square.

Last night, life in London marched on more people in pubsappeared to be preoccupied with the imminent smoking ban than thethreat of terrorism.

Often a mythical "Blitz spirit" is evoked on these occasions, butit is the simple juggernaut economics of the place and the shoal-like knowledge that among millions your chances of death are indeedvery low that keeps the place moving.

So it was luck that saved London this time, but we cannot rely onluck too often. In a chilling statement released after the Brightonbombing in 1984, an attempt to assassinate then-prime ministerMargaret Thatcher, the IRA warned: "You were lucky this time. Butremember, we only have to be lucky once."